RailRoadFan.com

Thank you.

IMO trucks will sell better than small vehicles. IIRC in Orion's best year selling the Bolt (and other similar variants) they sold 22,000 in a year which is pathetic considering the average assembly plant produces at least 100,000 and some (like Jeep's Toledo plant) up to 300,000.

There just is no market for small vehicles in America at this time and I believe there are financial blocks (tariffs) to shipping them to other countries.

Chip wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:45 pm

Trucks is all I saw

AARR wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:33 pm

Thank you.

IMO trucks will sell better than small vehicles. IIRC in Orion's best year selling the Bolt (and other similar variants) they sold 22,000 in a year which is pathetic considering the average assembly plant produces at least 100,000 and some (like Jeep's Toledo plant) up to 300,000.

There just is no market for small vehicles in America at this time and I believe there are financial blocks (tariffs) to shipping them to other countries.

Chip wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:45 pm

Trucks is all I saw

The Bolt is, always has been and always will be a compliance car no matter what GM publicly says about it. That's why they've put zero effort into selling more of them outside of the west coast and people in metro Detroit who qualify for A-plan.

As far as building them for export it largely depends on the country. Ford has been shipping Mustangs all over the world from Flat Rock since 2015 (including right hand drive countries). In GM's case they've shrunk their global footprint so much in the last 5 years and the Chevrolet brand has zero equity outside of the US and Canada so there's zero chance the Bolt will ever be exported, otherwise it would have been built in Korea where the export variables would be much more in GM's favor. In the past they could have rebadged it for Europe as an Opel but they sold that brand to Peugeot (now Stellantis) a few years ago.

AARR wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:53 pm

So perhaps I missed it, but did they say what kind of EV they will build?

Chip wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:28 pm

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/busin ... 132824002/

It could be the electric version of the Equinox or the Blazer. I'm not sure what else they could build there if they're still gonna build the Bolt at the same time.

Drove past the double crossing hill on Joslyn road towards the giant intersection on the border of Auburn Hills and Lake Orion and signs with the words “exempt” have been placed down at every crossing and crews have ripped out the tracks at Giddings road too. Looks like we’re on the Horizon of Abandonment/having the tracks ripped out.

Was not expecting this thread to see so much interest. Great to see a lot of people watching this line and looking at its potential.

They have all the opportunities to bring the line back, it would be so financially viable to do it.

David Collins wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:21 am

They have all the opportunities to bring the line back, it would be so financially viable to do it.

The opportunity is only there if GM wants it. If GM is happy with trucking vehicles from the plant to a loading location then I doubt it'll change. The only reason GM would switch is that it's cheaper.

Here’s the thing I just realized: If CN/GM brings back rail service to the plant, it would actually be a lot more easier to get cars from the plant to places like Toledo and Chicago, since the racks would be going to Pontiac yard, where E251 could pick it up and take them to Chicago or A450 take them to Toledo. I honestly think it makes more sense to bring rail back than ever.

David Collins wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:05 am

Here’s the thing I just realized: If CN/GM brings back rail service to the plant, it would actually be a lot more easier to get cars from the plant to places like Toledo and Chicago, since the racks would be going to Pontiac yard, where E251 could pick it up and take them to Chicago or A450 take them to Toledo. I honestly think it makes more sense to bring rail back than ever.

It will only make sense if it's cheaper than what GM has been doing. There hasn't been autoracks coming out of Orion since about 2007-2008 when the G6 was still being built there. If the future product is a hot seller and sales offset the cost of having CN pull autoracks out of there then maybe they would but Orion has never built any big selling vehicles since back when it opened in the mid-80s. Again, even if it's a big seller and they're getting vehicles to market in a fast enough way that is cheaper than what CN wants, GM will go the cheaper route.

conrailmike wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:38 am

David Collins wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:05 am

Here’s the thing I just realized: If CN/GM brings back rail service to the plant, it would actually be a lot more easier to get cars from the plant to places like Toledo and Chicago, since the racks would be going to Pontiac yard, where E251 could pick it up and take them to Chicago or A450 take them to Toledo. I honestly think it makes more sense to bring rail back than ever.

It will only make sense if it's cheaper than what GM has been doing. There hasn't been autoracks coming out of Orion since about 2007-2008 when the G6 was still being built there. If the future product is a hot seller and sales offset the cost of having CN pull autoracks out of there then maybe they would but Orion has never built any big selling vehicles since back when it opened in the mid-80s. Again, even if it's a big seller and they're getting vehicles to market in a fast enough way that is cheaper than what CN wants, GM will go the cheaper route.

CN gives them such a good rate to have them truck the cars to an existing ramp so they don’t need a crew, an engine and maintaining all of the rails and crossings.

Perhaps there still is hope for the Orion Sub. See article below.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/g ... incentives

Also wondering if that new Battery Plant in Lansing will require rail service?

David Lang wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:00 pm

Perhaps there still is hope for the Orion Sub. See article below.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/g ... incentives

Also wondering if that new Battery Plant in Lansing will require rail service?

Honestly, seeing what we know now, if they don’t bring the branch back, I’ll be VERY surprised, the demand for it to be used would be in plain sight with bright lights all around it. It’s easier to get the cars to Chicago since the yard the racks would be going to (Pontiac) has trains that daily go to Chicago/Toledo, sure, the line needs a major rehab, but I’m almost sure of it that could fit the repairs into the $3b+ they want to invest into Lake Orion.

David Collins wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:08 pm

David Lang wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:00 pm

Perhaps there still is hope for the Orion Sub. See article below.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/g ... incentives

Also wondering if that new Battery Plant in Lansing will require rail service?

Honestly, seeing what we know now, if they don’t bring the branch back, I’ll be VERY surprised, the demand for it to be used would be in plain sight with bright lights all around it. It’s easier to get the cars to Chicago since the yard the racks would be going to (Pontiac) has trains that daily go to Chicago/Toledo, sure, the line needs a major rehab, but I’m almost sure of it that could fit the repairs into the $3b+ they want to invest into Lake Orion.

It doesn't matter how many trains go to Chicago and Toledo. As I've already stated, if GM is happy with the way and the rate vehicles are getting to market then they'll continue to do what they're doing as long as it saves them money. Whatever happens, it'll be at least another 2-3 years before any new vehicle rolls out of Orion assembly. They still haven't even announced if the Bolt with stay in production there. Do not get your hopes up for any traffic on that branch.

David Lang wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:00 pm

Perhaps there still is hope for the Orion Sub. See article below.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/g ... incentives

Also wondering if that new Battery Plant in Lansing will require rail service?

Just depends on where in Lansing it'll be built and what it takes to make batteries. Last I heard, they owned more property adjacent to Lansing Delta Township Assembly so it could be possible.

Interesting stuff

bnsfben wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:18 pm

Any update on this?

The GM Investment? i don't think so.

I can give a current status of the tracks sooner or later. I'll go try to check out Collier Rd where David said his friend heard the bells going off and see if anything has changed. Seems unusual to me that CN would put big EXEMPT signs along the ROW if they were going to bring it back unless it was just bad timing before the GM announcement.

Nothing has changed with the tracks in the area. If service does resume, I wonder how they will stage the vehicle racks because most of the yard tracks in the Orion Marshalling yard are gone.

GTW Dude wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:47 am

bnsfben wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:18 pm

Any update on this?

I can give a current status of the tracks sooner or later. I'll go try to check out Collier Rd where David said his friend heard the bells going off and see if anything has changed. Seems unusual to me that CN would put big EXEMPT signs along the ROW if they were going to bring it back unless it was just bad timing before the GM announcement.

GTW Dude wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:47 am

bnsfben wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:18 pm

Any update on this?

The GM Investment? i don't think so.

I can give a current status of the tracks sooner or later. I'll go try to check out Collier Rd where David said his friend heard the bells going off and see if anything has changed. Seems unusual to me that CN would put big EXEMPT signs along the ROW if they were going to bring it back unless it was just bad timing before the GM announcement.

My guess is the line will continue to sleep until/unless production ramps up to make it worthwhile to reactivate. CN could've easily gotten abandonment permission by now; typically railroads wait two years after the last revenue movement to file for permission (it becomes easier to get ok'd at that point) and it's been a lot longer than that. I don't think CN wouldn't bother to place EXEMPT signs up if it was going to imminently file for abandonment; all the grade crossings and signage would simply be removed at the same time. (Simply thinking back to previous abandonments by them)

Steve B wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 11, 2022 8:27 am

GTW Dude wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:47 am

bnsfben wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:18 pm

Any update on this?

The GM Investment? i don't think so.

I can give a current status of the tracks sooner or later. I'll go try to check out Collier Rd where David said his friend heard the bells going off and see if anything has changed. Seems unusual to me that CN would put big EXEMPT signs along the ROW if they were going to bring it back unless it was just bad timing before the GM announcement.

My guess is the line will continue to sleep until/unless production ramps up to make it worthwhile to reactivate. CN could've easily gotten abandonment permission by now; typically railroads wait two years after the last revenue movement to file for permission (it becomes easier to get ok'd at that point) and it's been a lot longer than that. I don't think CN wouldn't bother to put EXEMPT signs up if it was going to file for abandonment; all that stuff would simply be removed at the same time.

I've had it confirmed by CN officials that it's an abandonment in place. If I had to assume, CN is still holding out for GM to ship out their way again.