US and North American Freight Traffic.

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US and North American Freight Traffic.

Unread postby Doktor No » Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:13 am

https://www.railwayage.com/freight/clas ... paign=2600 Great analysis...where did it go though? And why? Discuss among yourselves.
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Re: US and North American Freight Traffic.

Unread postby DaveO » Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:46 am

Doktor No wrote:Great analysis


I'm not sure about that. I think he punted more times than the Lions do :roll:

Anyway it's weekly figures. People that panic based on weekly figures need to get some meds going.
Business should be a long-term thing like 10 years.
But "activist" investors (aka scum in my thinking) have redefined long-term to be about a year.
So we get columnists like this that sound the alarm over a weekly result.
Part of the reason Ford stopped reporting monthly sales.
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Re: US and North American Freight Traffic.

Unread postby SD80MAC » Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:42 am

I think the flooding in the Midwest had everything to do with the downtrend in coal last month. Yes, not as much moves by rail anymore but all of the industry analysts are saying it should be back to normal this month.
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Re: US and North American Freight Traffic.

Unread postby DaveO » Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:58 am

SD80MAC wrote:I think the flooding in the Midwest had everything to do with the downtrend in coal last month. Yes, not as much moves by rail anymore but all of the industry analysts are saying it should be back to normal this month.


Coal is going out quick. The article acknowledges that. DTE has moved up the closing date on 2 plants from 2023 to 2022. DTE isn't alone in moving up coal plant closures.
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Re: US and North American Freight Traffic.

Unread postby Saturnalia » Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:16 pm

DaveO wrote:
SD80MAC wrote:I think the flooding in the Midwest had everything to do with the downtrend in coal last month. Yes, not as much moves by rail anymore but all of the industry analysts are saying it should be back to normal this month.


Coal is going out quick. The article acknowledges that. DTE has moved up the closing date on 2 plants from 2023 to 2022. DTE isn't alone in moving up coal plant closures.

Trenton, Essexville, St Clair, Monroe...all on the nearish-term chopping block. Huge coal customers by rail and via Lake Freighter. Both plants in Marquette shut down in the last year (Upper Harbor just last weekend), add to that Muskegon, etc. Crazy.

If one wants to run out to Wyoming to view the coal fields, you may only have a couple of years left to do so.
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Re: US and North American Freight Traffic.

Unread postby DaveO » Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:26 pm

Saturnalia wrote:If one wants to run out to Wyoming to view the coal fields, you may only have a couple of years left to do so.


The Wyoming coal is pretty safe for now.
It's the higher sulfur/higher labor cost stuff from the Appalachians that is endangered.
And yes, I think you knew that 8)
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Re: US and North American Freight Traffic.

Unread postby Doktor No » Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:33 pm

Only part of the article was weekly figures, it also shows a downward trend year to date.
Western coal will be OK for awhile, but it won't be forever either. Rail must needs to find a new traffic base to replace it...as in intermodal? As in oil? As in a better job of what they now have? All of the above IMHO.
Vantuono has been around the block and has covered rail for decades. He knows from where he comes by the way.
Just another input into the mix of discussion...thought I'd pass it along.
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