Harrison Leaves CP early, looks to CSX, end of CSX in MI?

[GTW]

Just a little correction there CSX_CO the GTW was single tracked from Penn to Schoolcraft in 1987 long before "Hunter" But the land barge is alive and well it was 14,000' yesterday. EHH had plans for removing 85 miles of double track west of Battle Creek in the late 90's when he arrived " I have a copy" of it but I think BNSF said no way as merger talks were under way at the time. He did install CTC on the South Bend Sub. Currently the Marcellus siding is getting new LED signals soon.

[Super Chief]

Right you are GTW on that one. The boys in Detroit were fired by Montreal on that decision. Was a bottleneck from that year to now, but hey we saved maintenance on what 15 miles of a 2nd track?

[Super Chief]

Wow 30 years ago. 14000' land barge no wonder southbound 131 looked like the start of a Nascar race in turn 4 coming to the start line.

[CSX_CO]

Maybe on the "west end" but copied and pasted from Trainirders:

"in 1999 and 2000, the CN singled tracked more of the Flint sub.
Removed was Bancroft(mp 248) to Perry (mp 241), Shaftsburg(mp 235) to Okemos (mp 227), and Potterville (mp 208) to Walton twp/Five point highway (mp 197). a total of 26 miles of track."

Harrison was certainly in charge at CN by then, and obviously didnt stop the move.

Practice Safe CSX

[Steve B]

Hunter was also not in charge in 1955-57 when GTW single tracked East Durand to West Flint, and East Flint to West Tappan, a total of 60.7 miles.

[GTW]

Both of you are correct.

[SD70ACe Fan]

I hope if he gets President, it brings more CSX trains through Lansing on the Plymouth!

[Saturnalia]

I hope it brings more CSX trains through Lansing on the Plymouth!

It won't. Right now they're trying to lower the traffic count in an attempt to evade PTC.

[CSX_CO]

I hope it brings more CSX trains through Lansing on the Plymouth!

It won't. Right now they're trying to lower the traffic count in an attempt to evade PTC.

Now your grasping at straws. It's already stated east of GR won't get PTC.

West side will need it for AMTRAK. Doubt they run 100 million Gross's tons east of GR. Route any PIH/TIH, if there is any, via the west. Same for any excess tonnage over 100 million. Not that there is that much anyway.

[Saturnalia]

I hope it brings more CSX trains through Lansing on the Plymouth!

It won't. Right now they're trying to lower the traffic count in an attempt to evade PTC.

Now your grasping at straws. It's already stated east of GR won't get PTC.

West side will need it for AMTRAK. Doubt they run 100 million Gross's tons east of GR. Route any PIH/TIH, if there is any, via the west. Same for any excess tonnage over 100 million. Not that there is that much anyway.

Yeah, I know it isn't going to get PTC - and its their operating plans that are set in order to keep it that way. They've already shot down a couple of operational improvements so that they don't have to do PTC, hence my present-tense choice of verb. It's also a lot of the reason why 334/335 were axed.

On some of the points above, CN's Marquette Range Sub-div sees about the same tonnage as the CSX GR Sub and is also a branch line, yet somehow, EHH and the rest of CN never downgraded that line to 25, even though operationally they could make it "work". Nope, it's still 40.

I guess we'll never get anywhere here. I'll just sit back, and wait for the traffic crunch which makes the B&O go belly-up as usual in those cases, as management looks around and wonders why they have no viable alternative because they've killed off all of their other options, just so they could have their pretty triangle on the map in the board room in Jacksonville.

[CSX_CO]

PM isn't a viable alternative to the B&O. Alternative, yes. Viable alternative, no.

[justin_gram]

Going to copy and paste this from the chat.

(14:12:37) justin_gram: Here's the point. No one knows what exactly will happen. Let's all just sit back, enjoy what we have, and hope for the best. Only time will tell what happens. With EHH going in, I'm sure the line will be fine.

(14:13:38) Saturnalia: Yeah, we've pretty much flushed out all there is to say for now...

[JoJames]

Not changing the subject much. The whole PIH/TIH issue was something the railroads should have never been allowed to get away with.

[Saturnalia]

Not changing the subject much. The whole PIH/TIH issue was something the railroads should have never been allowed to get away with.

What do you mean?

[heartlandguy]

PM isn't a viable alternative to the B&O. Alternative, yes. Viable alternative, no.

I don't know why people keep playing the 'viable alternative route' card, when CSX has downgraded basically ALL of their other 'viable alternative' routes. Illinois Sub? Mothballed. Indiana Sub west of Seymour? Local service only (though east of Seymour is seeing a renaissance bc of the whole LIRC/directional running plan). Fort Wayne Line from Chicago to Crestline? Leased to CF&E. My guess? Most of the PM gets the shortline treatment by being sold/leased to G&W, while the sections with little to offer get mothballed.

And as for CP coming to save the day, which almost ALWAYS gets brought up in discussions about the PM, let it go. Pipe dream. Why would CP purchase and rehabilitate an over 300 mile long line from Detroit to Porter, especially now with all the other cutting going on with east coast RRs, when they can run their trains with their own crews over NS for pennies on the dollar? CP even took their 2 trains a day (Q165 WB/Q166 EB) off the B&O across Indiana because oil traffic is down. As a result, with not as many oil trains running, CP can comfortably run these trains over NS again without going over their operating limit. I'm not disputing that CP USED to have plans for the line, but that was in a different time. My guess is you'll be seeing the orange and yellow of G&W WAY before you see the red of CP again...

G

[MQT1223]

Ok, we all keep looking at what will happen if EHH gets into CSX, lets look at the entire situation as it sits now.

If CSX doesn't want the Plymouth Sub or GR Sub why do they continue to hang onto it? The GR sub from Holland South I can understand a little bit because of coal train traffic but from Holland to Grandville there is no local service. From Alto East to Lansing there is no local service anymore and they only run from Trowbridge and back now. Unless there is someone hell bent on getting rail service CSX doesn't seem to want anything to do with it.

Look at what RailAmerica/G&W has done on the Marquette. CSX practically put a death wish on it until it went into shortline management. The Michigan Shore has lost traffic due to the lack of oil and sand shipments but they have held on through other means. GRE has maintained its grain shipments and even expanded upon them in recent years.

Watco took a line from NS that was supposed to be a lost cause thanks to GM and has been running land barge's on it for the past few years now, causing them to lay more track in their yards to help supply the demand.

If unloading the PM to CP is a foolish idea, what makes it any different to have a short line take over?

Heck... what if an entirely new railroad not associated with G&W and Watco takes over? You would think that if G&W or Watco got the Grand Rapids Terminal trackage that they would jack up the rates for the competitor essentially monopolizing the West Side. You would almost need a CSA-type situation in downtown GR if CSX left, that's about the only good thing I see having CSX still around in GR.

Who else has been expanding their short line holdings as of late that could make such an investment? Lake State seems to be expanding their horizon. I don't think this fits Pioneer's bill cause they'd let the track go down to 25mph.

[Saturnalia]

The GR sub from Holland South I can understand a little bit because of coal train traffic but from Holland to Grandville there is no local service.

False. There is fairly significant local traffic in Zeeland with three customers. And then Grandville harbors 3 more.

From Alto East to Lansing there is no local service anymore and they only run from Trowbridge and back now. Unless there is someone hell bent on getting rail service CSX doesn't seem to want anything to do with it.

Patently false. There are customers in Lako, Lowe's is busy in Grand Ledge, and several others which account for decently modest traffic.

I don't know why people keep playing the 'viable alternative route' card, when CSX has downgraded basically ALL of their other 'viable alternative' routes.

Sure, the PM isn't worth much to CSX, but when you have CP, who has been constantly looking at their options between Chicago and Detroit for over 30 years, well then the PM is the only viable through route for them. It isn't some downtrodden branchline through the woods. The line is well maintained and has historically done just fine with two dozen trains per day.

And as for CP coming to save the day, which almost ALWAYS gets brought up in discussions about the PM, let it go. Pipe dream. Why would CP purchase and rehabilitate an over 300 mile long line from Detroit to Porter

It always comes up, because CP has made multiple attempts at moving traffic back to CSX via trackage/haulage rights, or outright sale, including within the last couple of years. This idea isn't as "dead" as you and CSX_CO make it sound. And why would they want this? Continued below...

As a result, with not as many oil trains running, CP can comfortably run these trains over NS again without going over their operating limit.

Ahh, the operating limit. The crux of the problem. Like I was saying with the B&O being just fine right now is also the case here. It's fine right now, when traffic is lite. But when the cycle bounces back, then watch NS constrict, lower the amount of trains CP can run, and you'll end up like we did a couple years ago with CP attempting to secure a contract for a relief flow through Michigan on the PM.

Most of the naysayer logic right now assumes traffic levels stay where they are, but we have a very good chance that traffic will increase, and the last couple of times that happened CP re-examined the PM as their one and only chance to secure their own destiny through Michigan. It isn't the completely flat and straight route that the NS is, but it does offer them their own control on a route of somewhat increasing importance for them.

To look at it another way, if we end up with another round or merger maina, if CP were to merge with KCS, BNSF or UP, they'd sure as hell want their own cross-Michigan route.

In the end this is all speculation, but as I've said a million times before, along with plenty of others with deep understandings of the PM up here, CP will continue to look at the PM as a chance to control their own destiny, when and if they decide to pursue it and can agree on a price with CSX. It's been tendered several times before, and could very easily happen again. To bet against that is to bet against a long history which included its latest episode only a couple years ago.

I'm not claiming that it is going to happen, but there is an UNDENIABLY decent chance that it could happen in some form in the medium-to-long range. I'm not saying it's likely, I don't even think it is very close to 50/50. But there is a chance because factors could align that make it make sense.

And as long as that chance exists, we're going to speculate about it, ok?

[PatAzo]

It always comes up, because CP has made multiple attempts at moving traffic back to CSX

Wasn't it CP who filed to terminate their trackage rights over CSX?

[Saturnalia]

It always comes up, because CP has made multiple attempts at moving traffic back to CSX

Wasn't it CP who filed to terminate their trackage rights over CSX?

The contract expired.

[PatAzo]

It was Soo Line. If they wanted back on the PM and contract expired, why file for discontinuance instead of filing an argument to maintain them?

§ 1152.22(a)(3): Relief sought - Soo Line seeks to discontinue its overhead trackage
rights on lines of railroad owned and/or operated by CSXT between Chicago, Illinois and
Rougemere Yard in Dearborn, Michigan, a total distance of approximately 298 miles, pursuant to
the Board's class exemption for the discontinuance of trackage rights set forth at C.F.R.
§ 1152.50(b).

https://www.stb.gov/Filings/all_2010s.n ... 227264.PDF